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Summary of the UK Economy(Mar-2024) Technical Recession; 2 consecutive quarters of recession Rising Inflation Trade deficit United Kingdom, the Bank of England's base rate is 5.25% (2024-03-21) and has been frozen five times. Summary of the UK Economy GDP Projections; Bank of England The Bank of England's forecast for UK economic growth is shown above. 2022 (actual) : 4.3% 2023 (forecast) : 0.3% 2024(forecast) : 0.3% 2025 (forecast) : 0.8% We assume the 2023 forecast is nearly realistic, and we also forecast low growth of 0.3% in 2024. Quarterly economic growth rates for 2023 are shown below. 1Q 2023 : 0.2% 2Q 2023 : 0% 3Q 2023 : -0.1% 4Q 2023 : -0.3% With three and four consecutive quarters of negative growth in 2023, we are characterizing this as a technical recession. CPI Projections; Bank of England Looking at the inflation outlook, we expect inflation to stabilize after reaching +4.2% in Q4 2023. In January 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 4.0%, down -0.6% mon

US Fed, FOMC Summary(2024-03) : Hold rates Hold Fed rates. Cuts 3 times this year. Considering easing QT. Q. When will the Fed cut rates? A. It is not appropriate to cut rates until there is more confidence in the 2% inflation target, which should be sometime this year. Q. Will QT (quantitative tightening) remain in place? A. QT will remain at $95 billion per month. However, Dallas Fed President Laurie Logan and New York Fed President John Williams have suggested that the pace of QT tapering should be adjusted. Q. What will happen to the U.S. economy? A. Compared to the outlook last December, the economy should be in good shape. The inflation forecast is now 2.4% to 2.6%, growth is now 1.4% to 2.1%, and the unemployment rate is now 4.1% to 4.0%. US Fed, FOMC Summary(2024-03) : Hold rates FOMC(March-2024), Economic Projections; median % THOTH Investing Opinion: Dovish FOMC statement, Fed considering a possible slowdown? Many investors have been waiting for the US FOMC's decision. Le

BOJ to raise policy rate; Exit from negative Interest rates Japan's central bank to hike rates for first time in 17 years... -0.1% → 0-0.1% expected The BoJ is raising its benchmark interest rate for the first time in 17 years, Japan's Kyodo news agency reported. The central bank had been holding the benchmark rate at a negative rate (-0.10%), but with Japan also seeing inflation, it's likely to keep the benchmark rate at a positive rate. BOJ to raise policy rate; Exit from negative Interest rates USD/JPY; stockcharts.com Day 18, BOJ; rate hike expected 19-20, U.S. Fed; FOMC meeting ... expected to keep rates unchanged, watch for comments on when to cut rates While the Japanese central bank's rate hike is expected to strengthen the Japanese yen, the U.S. Federal Reserve's delayed rate cut is expected to have less of an impact on the Japanese yen, as the U.S. dollar strengthens. In the meantime, Japan has controlled interest rates below 1% for 10-year government bond

Shipbuilding: US-China Hegemonic Competition, Economic-Security Strategy Wartime manufacturing supply chain? Nations that conquer the seas have historically dominated the world, and those that lose them have fallen from grace. A nation's shipbuilding and shipping industries were key to its global hegemony, and therefore key to its national security. China dominates both the global shipbuilding and shipping industries, and the United States is losing its shipbuilding and shipping competitiveness due to high labor costs and a declining ability to trade goods. On March 12, several unions, including the United Steelworkers of America, asked the administration for trade relief and state aid for the shipbuilding industry, arguing that China is distorting global markets in the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries. Shipbuilding: US-China hegemonic competition, Economic-Security Strategy World No. 1 (1975) U.S. shipbuilding ranks 19th in the world ... builds less than 1% of the

US Producer Price Index (PPI) Rises, Signs of Inflation... Will the US FOMC Delay Rate Cuts? U.S. PPI sees 6-month high The Producer Price Index (PPI) affects the Consumer Price Index (CPI). An increase in PPI can lead to an increase in CPI, usually with a 6-month lag. Based on the February 2024 PPI, it is likely that CPI and consumer prices will be higher by August. US PPI Rises, Signs of Inflation Will the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) FOMC Delay a Rate Cut? FOMC meets next week (Nov. 19-20) PPI; FRED Looking at the February 2024 PPI, inflation excluding food and energy prices was slightly lower than the previous month at +0.3%. However, the PPI was at its highest level in six months at +0.6%. Both were above expectations. The PPI is considered a leading economic indicator and, assuming a six-month lead, suggests that higher prices are likely to persist through the middle of the year. Looking ahead to the US FOMC meeting next week (19th-20th), the CPI and PPI releases suggest that infla

Spotlight on Ukraine's post-war reconstruction project Global infrastructure investment expected to increase; US (IIJA), Canada, India, etc. Ukraine reconstruction project to reach $1 trillion... largest since World War II Increased interest in infrastructure investment from major countries around the world ... U.S. (IIJA), Canada, India, etc. With the possibility of a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire on the horizon, there is growing interest in post-war recovery and reconstruction projects in Ukraine. In addition, it is a time of high interest in infrastructure investment globally. The U.S. is increasingly focusing on infrastructure investment through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), and Canada is expected to invest in construction, civil engineering, and other infrastructure in line with the U.S. IIJA. India, Indonesia, etc. are expected to invest in infrastructure for economic growth and industrial base. Construction, civil engineering, industrial facilities, defens

UK-India trade talks halted … Post-Brexit trade talks continue, terms of trade remain tough Post-Brexit, bilateral trade talks are underway ... with tricky terms of trade and a general election on the horizon UK's new FTAs with South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea... negotiations paused with Canada After BREXIT, the UK is preparing to enter into new trade agreements, mainly with countries that have trade agreements with the EU. South Korea also had a trade agreement with the EU through an FTA, but since the UK left the EU, South Korea has entered into a new trade agreement with the UK through a bilateral FTA. The advantage of a bilateral trade agreement, or FTA, is that it is relatively easy for both countries to fulfill the terms of trade they seek. The problem is that if the other country wants better terms, negotiations can reach a stalemate. The UK is preparing for a general election this year, and India is also preparing for a general election, so these were di

Spy equipment found on Chinese-made cranes at major U.S. ports Over 5 years, we will invest more than $20B ... in crane production and port security in the U.S. U.S. gets first homegrown crane production line in 30 years ... Mitsui E&S subsidiary Paceco produces The United States says it has identified spy equipment and suspicious communications equipment on Chinese-made cranes installed at major ports, and will replace them as a security measure for key strategic ports. The U.S. infrastructure investment budget is coming into play, with approximately $20 billion to be invested over the next five years. The cranes will be produced by Paceco, a subsidiary of Japan's MitsuiE&S, meaning the US will have a homegrown crane production line for the first time in nearly 30 years. Spy equipment found on Chinese-made cranes at major U.S. ports Strategic Materials Surveillance Threats, Espionage Threats of software misbehavior and sabotage The Biden administration has revealed that Ch

TSMC secures $5B in US CHIPS grants U.S. CHIPS grants: $39 billion + $75 billion (loans and loan guarantees) Samsung Electronics, Intel, Micron, and others expected to receive grants Taiwan's TSMC is expected to receive more than $5 billion in subsidies under the U.S. Semiconductor Support Act (CHIPS). Samsung Electronics, Intel (INTC: US), and Micron (MU: US) are also expected to benefit from the subsidies. The CHIPS Act will provide $39 billion in direct payments and $75 billion in loans and loan guarantees, with $28 billion of the $39 billion going to advanced semiconductor production lines. CHIPS grants The problem is that the direct subsidy payments from the U.S. Semiconductor Support Act (CHIPS) are $39 billion, while semiconductor companies have applied for more than $70 billion, making it difficult to fully fund the program. Samsung is reportedly discussing additional investments in the U.S., pledging to invest more. TSMC is investing about $40 billion to build two semicond

US Jobs report: Increased employment, Economic growth stable Wall Street focus on potential rate cuts U.S. February Nonfarm Payrolls: 275,000 ... up 200,000 for the third consecutive month U.S. February unemployment rate: 3.9% ... has remained below 4% since January 2022 US jobs report Unemployment: FRED unemployment rate increased +0.2 percentage points from the previous month (3.7%, January) to 3.9%. All employees, Total nonfarm: FRED Nonfarm payrolls increased slightly from the previous month (229K, January) to 275K. Along with solid employment, the eye is on the possibility of unemployment exceeding 4%. Since January 2022, the unemployment rate has been below 4% and inflation has been high. Could this change now? Wall Street still sees June as the time for the Fed to cut rates. Powered by, THOTH Investment Support the THOTH Newsroom

Chip War: U.S. Tightens China Semiconductor Regulations Participating countries include South Korea, the United States, Japan, Taiwan, the Netherlands, etc. Semiconductors become national strategic items around the world Chip War literally means semiconductor war. It's a technology race between the United States and China over the semiconductor industry, with countries in the liberal camp, led by the United States, trying to keep China's semiconductor industry in check. These countries include South Korea, the United States, Japan, Taiwan, Germany, and the Netherlands. Chris Miller, the author of 「Chip War」, describes the semiconductor industry in detail in his book and suggests that it will become a national survival strategy. I recommend reading it. 「반도체 주권국가」 is a book written by former Minister Park Young-sun, Dr. Kang Sung-chun, and CEO Cha Jeong-hoon, and is rated as a book comparable to Chip War. I recommend reading it. Semiconductors have now become a central industry f

South Korea's Top 25 Companies by Market cap What are Chaebols? South Korea became an economic powerhouse after the Korean War with rapid industrialization, known as the "Miracle on the Han River". The top 25 largest South Korean companies by market capitalization on February 7, 2024, in U.S. dollars (USD), as provided by CompaniesMarketCap.com, as published on Visualcapitalist.com. Includes domestic stocks listed on the KRX, as well as U.S. stocks listed on U.S. exchanges, such as Coupang. South Korea's Top 25 Companies by Market cap Visualcapitalist; Ranked; South Korea's Companies https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-south-koreas-largest-companies-by-market-capitalization/ Top 25 Companies in South Korea At the top of the list is Samsung Electronics. With a market capitalization of $375 billion, it's larger than the GDP of Qatar. Samsung is known for producing smartphones, white goods, and semiconductors, with its most profitable segment being semiconduc

Natural gas reserves by country(2023) Ukraine to "shut down Russia-Europe gas pipeline in 2025" Russia, No.1 in natural gas reserves ... After the war in Ukraine, weaponized natural gas Natural gas is used for electricity generation, heating, vehicle fuel, and a variety of industrial processes. This post was written by Gopalakrishnan Ravichandran using BP statistics as of September 2023 and visualizations from Visualcapitalist.com. Natural Gas Reserves, by Country https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/visualizing-natural-gas-reserves-by-country/ Natural gas reserves ranking Russian Federation : 37.4tcm, 19.9% Iran : 32.1tcm, 17.1% Qatar : 24.7tcm, 13.1% Turkmenistan : 13.6tcm, 7.2% US : 12.6tcm, 6.7% China : 8.4tcm, 4.5% Venezuela : 6.3tcm, 3.3% Saudi Arabia : 6.0tcm, 3.2% UAE : 5.9tcm, 3.1% Nigeria : 5.5tcm, 2.9% The reserves above are the amount of natural gas that can be extracted under existing economic and operating conditions. It is an amount that may increase or change i

Fed rate cuts to be hard?… Inflation target 2% "Fed needs to be confident of reaching its 2% Inflation target." For the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, it first needs to have strong confidence in reaching and maintaining its 2% inflation target. Over the past year, inflation has been falling steadily, but not enough to reach the target, and the economy is showing signs of improvement. The question for the Fed is. If it cuts rates too soon, it will fail to reach its 2% inflation target and potentially cause high inflation to become entrenched. If they cut rates too late, high-interest rates could push the economy into recession. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments echo that concern. “Reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could result in a reversal of progress we have seen in inflation and ultimately require even tighter policy to get inflation back to 2%.”, “At the same time, reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken econom

Singapore to buy F-35A Jets : F-35, Best-Selling over F-16 F-35 orders nearly 2,500 worldwide...will be more competitive on price Singapore Air Force has ordered eight F-35A fighters, which are expected to be delivered and operational around 2030. This will bring Singapore's total F-35 fleet to 20 fighters, including the F-35A and F-35B. Source. Ng Eng Hen; X Singapore is a country in Southeast Asia, neighboring Malaysia and Indonesia. While it is recognized as a neutral country, it is also considered to be a pro-Western country with a developed financial capitalism. In the past, US President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un have met in Singapore because it is a neutral country and is relatively familiar to both the US and North Korea. A fully neutral foreign and security policy requires a strong military presence. Singapore has a stable economy and a quality military. Due to its relatively small landmass, it has established defense strategy concepts such as the so-called