THOTH Newsroom

US Fed, FOMC Summary(2024-03) : Hold rates Hold Fed rates. Cuts 3 times this year. Considering easing QT. Q. When will the Fed cut rates? A. It is not appropriate to cut rates until there is more confidence in the 2% inflation target, which should be sometime this year. Q. Will QT (quantitative tightening) remain in place? A. QT will remain at $95 billion per month. However, Dallas Fed President Laurie Logan and New York Fed President John Williams have suggested that the pace of QT tapering should be adjusted. Q. What will happen to the U.S. economy? A. Compared to the outlook last December, the economy should be in good shape. The inflation forecast is now 2.4% to 2.6%, growth is now 1.4% to 2.1%, and the unemployment rate is now 4.1% to 4.0%. US Fed, FOMC Summary(2024-03) : Hold rates FOMC(March-2024), Economic Projections; median % THOTH Investing Opinion: Dovish FOMC statement, Fed considering a possible slowdown? Many investors have been waiting for the US FOMC's decision. Le

BOJ to raise policy rate; Exit from negative Interest rates Japan's central bank to hike rates for first time in 17 years... -0.1% → 0-0.1% expected The BoJ is raising its benchmark interest rate for the first time in 17 years, Japan's Kyodo news agency reported. The central bank had been holding the benchmark rate at a negative rate (-0.10%), but with Japan also seeing inflation, it's likely to keep the benchmark rate at a positive rate. BOJ to raise policy rate; Exit from negative Interest rates USD/JPY; stockcharts.com Day 18, BOJ; rate hike expected 19-20, U.S. Fed; FOMC meeting ... expected to keep rates unchanged, watch for comments on when to cut rates While the Japanese central bank's rate hike is expected to strengthen the Japanese yen, the U.S. Federal Reserve's delayed rate cut is expected to have less of an impact on the Japanese yen, as the U.S. dollar strengthens. In the meantime, Japan has controlled interest rates below 1% for 10-year government bond

Shipbuilding: US-China Hegemonic Competition, Economic-Security Strategy Wartime manufacturing supply chain? Nations that conquer the seas have historically dominated the world, and those that lose them have fallen from grace. A nation's shipbuilding and shipping industries were key to its global hegemony, and therefore key to its national security. China dominates both the global shipbuilding and shipping industries, and the United States is losing its shipbuilding and shipping competitiveness due to high labor costs and a declining ability to trade goods. On March 12, several unions, including the United Steelworkers of America, asked the administration for trade relief and state aid for the shipbuilding industry, arguing that China is distorting global markets in the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries. Shipbuilding: US-China hegemonic competition, Economic-Security Strategy World No. 1 (1975) U.S. shipbuilding ranks 19th in the world ... builds less than 1% of the

US Producer Price Index (PPI) Rises, Signs of Inflation... Will the US FOMC Delay Rate Cuts? U.S. PPI sees 6-month high The Producer Price Index (PPI) affects the Consumer Price Index (CPI). An increase in PPI can lead to an increase in CPI, usually with a 6-month lag. Based on the February 2024 PPI, it is likely that CPI and consumer prices will be higher by August. US PPI Rises, Signs of Inflation Will the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) FOMC Delay a Rate Cut? FOMC meets next week (Nov. 19-20) PPI; FRED Looking at the February 2024 PPI, inflation excluding food and energy prices was slightly lower than the previous month at +0.3%. However, the PPI was at its highest level in six months at +0.6%. Both were above expectations. The PPI is considered a leading economic indicator and, assuming a six-month lead, suggests that higher prices are likely to persist through the middle of the year. Looking ahead to the US FOMC meeting next week (19th-20th), the CPI and PPI releases suggest that infla

Spotlight on Ukraine's post-war reconstruction project Global infrastructure investment expected to increase; US (IIJA), Canada, India, etc. Ukraine reconstruction project to reach $1 trillion... largest since World War II Increased interest in infrastructure investment from major countries around the world ... U.S. (IIJA), Canada, India, etc. With the possibility of a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire on the horizon, there is growing interest in post-war recovery and reconstruction projects in Ukraine. In addition, it is a time of high interest in infrastructure investment globally. The U.S. is increasingly focusing on infrastructure investment through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), and Canada is expected to invest in construction, civil engineering, and other infrastructure in line with the U.S. IIJA. India, Indonesia, etc. are expected to invest in infrastructure for economic growth and industrial base. Construction, civil engineering, industrial facilities, defens

UK-India trade talks halted … Post-Brexit trade talks continue, terms of trade remain tough Post-Brexit, bilateral trade talks are underway ... with tricky terms of trade and a general election on the horizon UK's new FTAs with South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea... negotiations paused with Canada After BREXIT, the UK is preparing to enter into new trade agreements, mainly with countries that have trade agreements with the EU. South Korea also had a trade agreement with the EU through an FTA, but since the UK left the EU, South Korea has entered into a new trade agreement with the UK through a bilateral FTA. The advantage of a bilateral trade agreement, or FTA, is that it is relatively easy for both countries to fulfill the terms of trade they seek. The problem is that if the other country wants better terms, negotiations can reach a stalemate. The UK is preparing for a general election this year, and India is also preparing for a general election, so these were di